Trends and Facts - THE PC IS DEAD - LONG LIVE THE PC

How can an experienced IT firm approach trends? The answer is not easy. There are specialized research companies trying to see into the future and establish a trend from historical facts and new information surveys. If their concept does not work out, the most they risk is their prestige, as opposed to a practicing IT company whose livelihood depends on the right decisions.  The successful 23-year track record of our company proves that in practice, trends can be predicted by knowing your customers, and ensure a company's continued success by understanding their direction. Seven years ago, when I became the sales director of our company, perceptions about the future of the world were not changing as frequently as now. However, by now, it has not only been the IT area accelerating, we can see this change everywhere. Still, how do we find the right course? The answer is complex, let me clarify with a few examples. Not so long ago, it was (maybe still is) fashionable to bury the PC: they would be replaced within the next two years by phones and tablets. Should we believe this or is it just something industry interests suggest? What do pragmatic leaders do in this case? Do they look at what ideas their own company and its markets (the client base) have about acquisitions in the next 12-24 months?  

They take sales data from the last 6-8 months and see if the numbers justify the change in sales trends. In our case we discovered the following, in the majority of cases:

• The analytical centers, although they undoubtedly have revolutionary ideas about the future, turn out to be wrong in many cases as far as time perspective is concerned. Their predictions are realized with several years of delay even in the most developed countries of the world.

• Europe follows trends by a nose length only. One could graciously say that Europeans wait to see whether the seeds of change fall on susceptible soil.

• Hungary (even the domestic affiliates of the global market leader companies) are an additional step further back. Being aware of all this, it could be said that one can manage a company in our country almost by just leaning back in an armchair. However, this is not so at all. Our sales structure is very effective because our consulting colleagues are thinking about creating the near and distant future together with our customers. The experience and practical knowledge our company has accumulated will help not only us but also our customers to find the way to develop economical decisions.

Let me quote from the Gartner report dated October 26, 2012: "Smartphones and tablets are no longer spread prediction, but a fact, so much so that the new devices have already begun to erode the traditional PC market. The research company expects that next year (2013), mobile devices will be the main tools used for web access, and at most companies in 2014, tablets and smartphones may be the primary work tools instead of laptops and traditional desktops. Obviously, this completely upsets corporate IT architectures and workflows built around the PC for decades." Well, not much time is left for that predicted fatal erosion of PCs. In contrast, let me quote our company’s sales facts for the first eight months of this year: over 30% of growth was achieved in the number of units sold compared to last year's pro rata share and the proportion of desktop devices was just below 50%. You must remember that a few years ago, the market already buried desktop devices and predicted them to be replaced by notebooks. In my opinion, the PC is certainly not to be buried. Until a real alternative device appears, or the current proclaimed alternatives, such as the tablet and smartphone do add significant extra value in an enterprise environment, there will not be a resounding turn in trends. It is clear that it is not wise to make serious business decisions on the basis of proclaimed, fashionable trends, especially not with the fear of falling behind. All this does not mean, of course, that the latest developments, the leading technologies and announcements do not need to be followed day by day. For me, a very exciting area is that cloud technology has now become solid enough so that the hybrid solutions could shift the interest of the decision makers in the direction of this thin client. Bandwidth, server capacity can no longer be a constraint, while there is no doubt about the potential opportunity lying in the energy efficiency, in the ease of manageability and in the longevity of the devices. And one more key factor occurs: the flexibility that can be achieved.

For me, an IT manager, corporate decisionmaker is successful if his/her company's IT infrastructure is built to be of flexible structure at all times, free from constraints. This can support business processes the most, maintaining rapid adaptability. Be it the flexible use of cloud technology or even recourse to an external IT service provider.